Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near lengthy conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A initial meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington without results

The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in Trump's attempts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, including his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an deal.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the war.

At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

The president loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's summit in the summer produced no concrete results.

Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.

The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something Russia has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Joann Johnson
Joann Johnson

Experienced journalist specializing in Central European affairs and political commentary.