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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.