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At first, Trump appeared to adopt a firm approach on Ukraine. Following delivering warnings of "serious repercussions" during the summer in case Russia's president continued hindering ceasefire discussions, he eventually imposed substantial penalties on the Russian primary energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously hindered the Russian leader's capability to support his military invasion in the region.

But, through his newly presented detailed peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly drafted by US and Russian officials excluding Ukrainian or EU participation, he has seemingly reverted to his pro-Putin approach.

Benefiting Military Action

This plan would effectively benefit Putin for occupying Ukraine while putting the country's democratic system in peril. Despite ringing declarations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", much of the plan actually weaken that very autonomy. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his real-estate experience, Trump continues to consider the war as a basic border issue, implying giving Russia a section of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the ruler. Yet, Putin's invasion is not simply about dominating a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear intention to weaken it so it stops functions as an attractive example for the Russian people of the responsible governance that Putin's deepening dictatorship withholds them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although freezing in status the already split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would force Ukraine to give up all of Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding Russia with territory that its military have been unable to seize in more than a lengthy period of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defenses severely undermined.

This region is the site of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the well-established defensive positions that are a key obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these positions, providing Putin a open route to the capital should he later decide to resume the hostilities.

Armed Forces Limitations

Furthermore, in a move that would enable renewed fighting more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would mandate the nation to diminish the scale of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 troops to a limit of this lower number. Notably, Trump's initiative imposes no such limits on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's attempts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected administration as radicals, the proposal asserts: "Any Nazi ideology and practices must be rejected and forbidden." As if to underscore this element, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. However, Trump imposes no requirement that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting elections in his own country.

Defense Assurances

Admittedly, the plan has Russia commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "enshrine in legislation its position of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has violated similar agreements in the past – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to honor Ukraine's borders in exchange for giving up its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a truce and a handback of seized territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should we have confidence in this commitment this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external defense commitments. While the plan warns of a "strong joint armed reaction" in case the Russian Federation resume its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the specifics vary from fuzzy to troubling. The plan would not only block Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Putin from restoring his reduced military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Reaction

An additional parallel deal reportedly would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any future "serious, intentional, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a armed reaction. Yet unlike a capable national defense – the nation's most reliable deterrent against renewed invasion – the success of the parallel accord would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to respond with force to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not