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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Australian team host a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Older Team Fascination Builds

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this side and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test side being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Younger bowlers have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous retirements, but so far change has remained theoretical: a process that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, transition is upon them, imposed on this Australian squad in the space of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the team management assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance experiences a far greater shift with two players missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what new injuries the opening match may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of initially small injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the contest may see the primary four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might experience transition setting in much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane option, but beyond that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and throughout it opportunity for the opposing side. You can hear that train approaching, coming around the bend, and the English team hasn't seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.