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Just two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold forecast – not just who would win citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. He has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in audience and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the system every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but came two big batches of ballots added later and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible where yesterday turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, where the opponent would have basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But the winner added half a million votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse, youthful, tenants and residents struggling with costs

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president last year backed Zohran this year. However it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured we might exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it so afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Including one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I believe there was a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the property owners and homeowners supported the independent. Thus there was some opposition. However no, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly Cuomo. So I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that key figures from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that every city in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.