From Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”