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In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as British prime minister, he was the fifth consecutive UK leader to take up the role over a six-year span.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is occurring in France, now on its sixth prime minister in 24 months – with three in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a political permacrisis, the scale of which it has not witnessed for decades – perhaps not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Key background: from the moment Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, France has had a hung parliament separated into three warring blocs – the left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the country faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now nearly double the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which turned out to be largely unchanged from before – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the following day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for another 48 hours in a last-ditch effort to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, vowing to reject all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the end of his 48 hours, he appeared on television to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The president’s office confirmed the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would not back censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those ballots, due on Thursday.

It is, however, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

A Cultural Shift

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the right-leaning parties are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by some miracle, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to pass a budget by year-end, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So is there a way out? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would remain no decisive majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Surveys show the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its leaders acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that clear majorities are a thing of the past, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that cultural shift will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”